Rate Lock Advisory

Monday, March 4th

Monday’s bond market has opened in negative territory, recovering some of Friday’s late gains. Stocks are showing early losses of 88 points in the Dow and 36 points in the Nasdaq. The bond market is currently down 6/32 (4.20%), but gains late Friday should allow for rates to be approximately .250 of a discount point lower than Friday’s early pricing. If you saw an intraday improvement before the week came to an end, you may see a slight increase to reflect this morning’s early bond weakness.



30 yr - 4.20%







Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock




There is nothing scheduled today that is likely to affect mortgage rates. The rest of the week has six pieces of monthly and quarterly economic data set for release, in addition to a couple of congressional appearances by Fed Chairman Powell. One of the economic reports is extremely important to the financial and mortgage markets.



Factory Orders

Activities will begin late tomorrow morning with the release of two moderately important economic reports. One is December's Factory Orders report that is similar to last week's Durable Goods Orders release in giving us a measurement of manufacturing sector strength. This version includes new orders for both durable and non-durable goods. It is not one of the more important reports we get each month, however, it can influence mortgage pricing if it varies greatly from forecasts. Analysts are expecting a 2.5% decline in new orders, indicating weakness in the manufacturing sector. The bond market would like to see a larger decline, meaning that manufacturing activity was weaker than many had thought.



ISM Service Index

Tomorrow’s second report will be February’s non-manufacturing index from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). This is the sister release to last week’s manufacturing index, tracking executive sentiment about business conditions in the services sector instead of manufacturing. Predictions have the index at 52.7, down from January’s 53.4. A decline would signal more surveyed executives felt business softened than did in January. An increase would be bad news for bonds and mortgage rates.



Fed Talk

Overall, Wednesday is likely to bring the biggest move in rates this week due to the ADP Employment report and Fed Chairman Powell’s semi-annual testimony to congress. However, Friday is a very close second choice with the almighty monthly governmental Employment report being posted. The calmest day could be any day except Wednesday and Friday. There is a high probability of seeing big moves in the financial indexes and mortgage rates this week. Therefore, please proceed cautiously of still floating an interest rate and closing in the near future.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

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