Rate Lock Advisory

Friday, May 2nd

Friday’s bond market has opened in negative territory following mixed economic headlines. Stocks are rallying with the Dow up 410 points and the Nasdaq up 209 points. The bond market is currently down 17/32 (4.28%), which with yesterday’s late losses should cause an increase of approximately .375 of a discount point in this morning’s mortgage rates. If you saw an intraday increase Thursday afternoon, you should see a smaller change this morning than those who did get revised pricing yesterday.

17/32

Bonds

30 yr - 4.28%

410

Dow

41,163

209

NASDAQ

17,920

Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

High

Negative

Employment Situation

Today’s big news was the release of April’s Employment report at 8:30 AM ET. It gave us multiple reasons to say the employment sector is stronger than many had thought, but also some points that are good news for bonds. The U.S. unemployment rate held at March’s 4.2%, as it was expected to do. There were 177,000 new non-farm payrolls added to the economy last month, exceeding forecasts of approximately 130,000. Even though March’s payroll number was revised from 228,000 down to 185,000 to reduce the number of jobs added this year, April’s number is being taken as bad news for bonds and good news for stocks.

High

Positive

Employment Situation

The bond-friendly data in the report was the 0.2% increase in average earnings that fell below forecasts of 0.3%. Furthermore, on an annual basis, earnings held at March’s 3.8% pace when they were expected to rise 0.1%. Lower than expected earnings are favorable for bonds because rising wages fuel broader inflation that makes a bond’s future fixed interest payments less valuable. Unfortunately, traders appear to be focusing on the headline payroll number instead of the slightly favorable earnings data.

Low

Neutral

Factory Orders

Closing out this week’s calendar was the release of March's Factory Orders report. It revealed a 4.3% increase in new combines orders for durable and non-durable goods. This matched forecasts and has had no impact on this morning’s trading. Analysts were expecting a big jump and businesses ordered additional goods before tariffs took effect.

High

Unknown

Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Statement

Next week has only a couple of relevant economic reports scheduled for release but also has another FOMC meeting that is likely to create plenty of volatility in the markets. There are two Treasury auctions set that could cause movement in rates during afternoon trading midweek and post-FOMC Fed speeches that may come into play Friday. The ISM non-manufacturing (aka service) index will be released Monday morning. It is the sister release to yesterday’s ISM manufacturing index. We should see the most movement in rates the middle days. Look for details on all of next week’s activities in Sunday evening’s weekly preview.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

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